The Mekong Delta in Vietnam is currently experiencing significant challenges due to climate change and economic pressures, resulting in notable shifts in both the landscape and the livelihoods of its residents. A report by the World Bank, titled Living or Leaving: Life in the Mekong Delta Region of Vietnam, outlines how climate-related events, such as droughts, floods, and saltwater intrusion, have contributed to a decline in farm incomes since 2018. Additionally, the region’s contribution to Vietnam’s national GDP has decreased from nearly 20% in 2000 to 12.4% in 2024.
Migration Trends
Migration from the Mekong Delta has increased dramatically, with an estimated 1.7 million individuals leaving the area over the past decade. Many residents are now considering relocation due to ongoing environmental and economic difficulties. Factors influencing these potential moves include rising land inequality and rapid changes in land usage.
Research Insights
Researchers from The Business School at RMIT University Vietnam played a key role in analyzing these pressing issues as part of the World Bank report. Their research points to a concerning trend of land access, which is becoming increasingly concentrated. By 2022, 40% of rural households in the Mekong Delta were either landless or engaged in farming without ownership, up from 28% in 2006—one of the highest rates in the country. This trend can be traced back to distress sales, generational division of land, and escalating economic and environmental pressures.
Challenges Faced by Families
The sale of land has been viewed as a necessary option for families seeking immediate cash relief, while other households face challenges related to a declining labor pool due to youth migration and the reduced farming capacity of older individuals. The reduction of agricultural land translates into a loss of essential productive assets, which affects many families’ abilities to transition into higher-paying non-farm employment.
Expert Recommendations
RMIT Economics Professor Bob Baulch emphasized that smallholder farmers are struggling to remain competitive, and rural households lacking agricultural land have limited employment prospects, making urban migration increasingly attractive. He underscored the need for investments aimed at modernizing agricultural practices, providing skills training, and improving local infrastructure to enhance economic opportunities for rural inhabitants. Additionally, he recommended policies that facilitate voluntary migration and create flexible social protection systems for vulnerable groups unable to leverage new opportunities.
Evolving Land Use
The use of land in the Mekong Delta is evolving rapidly as households adjust to shifting incentives and environmental realities. The area dedicated to rice cultivation has decreased from 2.4 million hectares in 2006 to approximately 1.9 million hectares in 2022. Conversely, aquaculture has grown from 634,000 to 950,000 hectares, accompanied by an increase in perennial crops like coconuts and fruit trees.
Driving Forces Behind Changes
These changes are driven by both market dynamics and environmental pressures. Salinity intrusion and drought have reduced the feasibility of rice farming, encouraging farmers to either turn to aquaculture or diversify into more profitable crops. However, wealthier households with access to resources and expertise are better situated to invest in new agricultural enterprises, while poorer families often remain dependent on low-return rice farming or withdraw from agriculture altogether.
Legal Reforms and Transformation
Legal reforms have further accelerated these transformations by reducing restrictions on the conversion of rice farmland for alternative uses. Though some conversions have proven successful, others pose risks of unsustainable practices in a region that requires robust infrastructure and policy support.
Broader Developmental Challenges
The rise in land inequality and shifting land use patterns present broader developmental challenges. In the Mekong Delta, land acts as both a source of income and a safeguard against economic disruptions. Lack of access to land forces many households into precarious informal employment or migration, which often yields limited financial benefits and weakens community bonds.
Risks of Inequality
The repercussions are significant. As traditional economic activities become increasingly untenable, the region risks exacerbating inequality. Land suitable for aquaculture and horticulture is becoming more concentrated among wealthier families, while those with limited or no agricultural land face marginalization.
A Comprehensive Strategy
The World Bank report calls for a comprehensive strategy that includes the modernization of agriculture for residents who stay, investment in infrastructure to draw in new economic opportunities, and enhanced education and skills training to support adaptation, whether through remaining in the region or migrating. Absent these strategic interventions, the Mekong Delta could confront further economic marginalization, leaving millions of rural households without sustainable livelihoods.
This report, Living or Leaving: Life in the Mekong Delta Region of Vietnam, received financial support from the Australian Government through the Australia-World Bank Strategic Partnership.
